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Dueling Mandates: The Fed’s Policy Caution and Treasury’s Growing Borrowing Needs | Weekly Market Commentary | February 2, 2026
The Federal Reserve (Fed) enters 2026 navigating potentially constrained policy conditions as resilient growth and above‑trend inflation intersect with an increasingly unsustainable fiscal trajectory. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that federal debt growth requires eventual corrective action, even if near‑term market risks remain limited. Rising primary deficits at near full employment further limit long‑run policy flexibility, while expanding Treasury financing needs — and a growing reliance on short‑duration bills — heighten rollover risk and amplify sensitivity to the Fed’s policy rate.
The Productivity Advantage: Powering Economic Growth in 2026 | Weekly Market Commentary | January 26, 2026
Productivity growth is the key mechanism that allows the U.S. economy to expand above its long‑run trend without reigniting inflation.
